The 2026 sentencing changes: will they get out earlier?
Everyone is talking about the new rules and the 33% figure. Here is the honest picture: what is changing, what has not started yet, and what it might mean for your loved one.
These rules cover England and Wales. In Scotland or Northern Ireland? Start here.
What is changing
The Sentencing Act 2026 brings in a new way of releasing people called earned progression. When it starts:
- Most people on normal fixed sentences will be released at one third of the sentence, instead of 40%.
- The most serious sexual and violent offences move from two thirds to half.
- Release is earned: extra days for breaking prison rules push the date back, and the maximum extra days per incident is going up.
- The tag scheme (HDC) ended for adults on 2 September 2026, because the earlier release replaces it.
- Rape, serious child sex and grooming offences, and unlawful killing (manslaughter, death by dangerous or drink driving) are excluded and stay on the current rules.
When it reaches your loved one
The change comes in by sentence length, shortest first, so that the prisons can recalculate people already serving in batches. Find the total sentence length:
| Total sentence | New rules start |
|---|---|
| Under 575 days (up to about 19 months) | 1 October 2026 |
| 575 to 881 days (about 19 to 29 months) | 13 October 2026 |
| 882 to 1,161 days (about 29 to 38 months) | 10 November 2026 |
| 1,162 to 1,560 days (about 38 to 51 months) | 8 December 2026 |
| 1,561 to 2,120 days (about 4 years 3 months to 5 years 10 months) | 12 January 2027 |
| 2,121 to 2,757 days (about 5 years 10 months to 7 years 7 months) | 9 February 2027 |
| 2,758 to 3,282 days (about 7 years 7 months to 9 years) | 9 March 2027 |
| 3,283 to 3,653 days (about 9 to 10 years) | 13 April 2027 |
| 3,654 to 4,395 days (about 10 to 12 years) | 11 May 2027 |
| 4,396 days and over (over 12 years) | 8 June 2027 |
If the one third point has already passed when their stage starts, expect release on or shortly after the start date, once the prison has issued the new calculation. The release date calculator works this out for you.
The question everyone is asking
Will it apply to people already sentenced? Yes, that is what the staged start is for. But please do not treat an earlier date as real until:
- the stage for their sentence length has started, and
- the prison has issued a new sentence calculation.
The date on their sentence calculation sheet, from the prison's Offender Management Unit, is the official one. If nothing has arrived a couple of weeks after their stage starts, the person inside should put in an app to the OMU asking for the recalculation.
See both dates
Our release date calculator is built for exactly this moment. Put in the sentence and it shows the release date under today's rules, the date the new one third rules reach that sentence length, and the new date, side by side, so you can see the difference without guessing.
We will tell you as each stage lands
This is the single biggest change to prison release in years, and it lands in ten stages over nine months. We update this site as each one starts and if the government moves a date. If you want to know as it happens, leave your email below.
Common questions
Are the new one third release rules in force yet?
They start on 1 October 2026 and come in by sentence length, shortest first. Sentences under 575 days (about 19 months) move to one third on 1 October 2026. Longer sentences follow roughly monthly: 13 October, 10 November, 8 December 2026, then 12 January, 9 February, 9 March, 13 April, 11 May and 8 June 2027 for the longest. Until their tranche starts, the current rules apply and most normal sentences are released at 40%.
What is changing?
Most people on normal fixed sentences will be released at one third of the sentence instead of 40%, as long as they have not been given extra days for breaking prison rules. People currently released at two thirds move to half. It is called earned progression because good behaviour brings release forward and bad behaviour pushes it back. Rape, serious child sex and grooming offences, and unlawful killing (manslaughter, death by dangerous or drink driving) are excluded and stay on the current rules.
Will it apply to people already in prison?
Yes. The staged start is by sentence length precisely so that people already serving can be recalculated in batches. When the tranche for their sentence length starts, the prison's Offender Management Unit issues a new calculation. If the one third point has already passed by then, release is expected on or shortly after the tranche date. Do not treat the new date as real until the prison has issued it.
My relative's paperwork shows one date but I read about a new date. Which is right?
The date on their sentence calculation sheet from the prison is the official one until their tranche starts and the prison issues a new one. Use our release date calculator to see the current date, the date their tranche starts, and what the new rules mean for them.
Does this affect Scotland or Northern Ireland?
No. This is an England and Wales change. Scotland and Northern Ireland have their own separate rules. Scotland made its own change to release points in 2026.
Is HDC (the tag) affected?
Yes, and this has already happened. HDC ended for adults from 2 September 2026. Only people whose referral was processed before 25 June 2026 with an eligibility date before 2 September still go out on it. It remains for some youth sentences. The earlier one third release replaces it.
Want to know the day the rules change?
The new release rules land in stages from 1 October 2026. We will email you as each stage starts. Otherwise just a short update every few months. No spam, ever. Stop any time.
Thanks, you are on the list. We will only email when the rules change, plus a short update now and then. You can stop any time.
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